The Human Factor: How Fatigue, Aging Workforces, and Turnover Will Drive Workers’ Comp Costs This Year

Workers’ compensation has always been about people, but the “human factor” is taking center stage in a way we haven’t seen before. Employers tend to think of injuries as mechanical problems, slips, trips, machinery, equipment, ergonomics. But the forces driving claim frequency and severity this year have far more to do with how people feel, how they show up to work, and what pressures they’re operating under than with any single physical hazard on the shop floor.

In short, the workforce itself has changed, and the comp system is now adjusting to catch up.

This is especially true in three areas: fatigue, aging workforces, and turnover. Each one creates its own challenges, but the real story is how they overlap. None of these trends are new; what is new is how strong they’ve become and how consistently they now show up in claims across multiple industries.

Let’s break down what employers need to watch.

1. Fatigue: The Hidden Variable in Nearly Every Injury

Fatigue used to be considered a soft factor, hard to measure, easy to dismiss. That’s no longer the case. Insurers, safety professionals, medical providers, and even courts are beginning to acknowledge fatigue as a legitimate contributor to injury risk and recovery time.

The causes aren’t a mystery:

• Longer shifts driven by staffing shortages
• More consecutive workdays as temporary labor dries up
• Night and split shifts to meet fluctuating demand
• Commuting patterns that lengthen the workday
• Employees taking on second jobs to keep up with rising costs

What employers often underestimate is how little fatigue it takes to create an injury. A worker doesn’t have to be exhausted. They only have to be off by a few percentage points, slightly slower reflexes, slightly reduced strength, slightly less awareness of surroundings. That margin is all it takes for a shoulder strain, a misstep off a loading dock, or a slow reaction to a shifting load.

Fatigue also affects injury duration. A tired employee heals more slowly, reports symptoms later, and follows treatment plans less consistently. Providers see it all the time: the worker who seems “fine” at first but struggles weeks later because their body wasn’t fully recovering in between shifts.

What’s becoming clear is that fatigue is no longer a fringe topic, it’s a structurally significant driver of claim outcomes.

2. The Aging Workforce: More Experience, More Vulnerability

The workforce is older than ever. Many industries rely heavily on employees in their 50s, 60s, and even early 70s. These workers bring tremendous knowledge and reliability, but they also bring physical realities the comp system must account for.

The main challenge isn’t that older workers get injured more often. In fact, they usually don’t. It’s what happens after the injury.

Recovery takes longer

Muscles heal more slowly. Connective tissue isn’t as resilient. Strains that would sideline a 25-year-old for a week can take several weeks, or longer, for a 60-year-old.

Existing conditions add complexity

Arthritis, diabetes, cardiovascular issues, joint degeneration, and past injuries all interact with the new injury. Providers must differentiate what’s work-related from what isn’t, and that distinction isn’t always easy to make.

Modified duty becomes harder

Older workers are often in positions that require skill, not just labor. When they’re injured, there’s no easy “light duty” equivalent. Employers must get creative to keep them engaged without risking reinjury.

Surgery becomes a bigger question

For older workers, providers may hesitate to pursue aggressive surgical options. When surgery does happen, rehab is longer. When surgery is avoided, recovery sometimes stalls. Either pathway can drive up claim cost.

What employers should understand is that none of this is an indictment of older workers. They are often the backbone of their organizations. But the medical, physical, and logistical realities of treating injuries in an aging workforce require more planning and more recognition of the true exposure.

3. Turnover and Inexperience: The Compounding Risk That Keeps Growing

High turnover has been a problem for several years, but recently, it’s reached a tipping point. The issue isn’t just that new workers lack experience; it’s the ripple effect turnover creates throughout an organization.

Inexperienced workers learn on the job, in environments that aren’t slowing down.

The pace of work doesn’t adjust just because the team is new. Production targets remain. Customer demand remains. The workflow remains the same, even when the people performing it do not.

In this environment, new hires:

• Miss early warning signs of strain
• Don’t recognize when they’re using improper technique
• Don’t know when a situation feels “off”
• Hesitate to report discomfort or near-misses
• Follow coworkers’ shortcuts without understanding the risk

This isn’t a lack of training issue; it’s a lack of exposure issue. Training alone cannot replicate the situational awareness that comes from months or years of experience.

Turnover drains the institutional knowledge that keeps workplaces safe.

Experienced employees don’t just do their jobs well; they make thousands of tiny adjustments throughout the day that prevent injuries. They know which pallet is unstable, which machine is temperamental, which corner of the warehouse tends to get slippery, which route through the job site is safest.

When that person leaves, the knowledge leaves with them. And the comp system feels it immediately.

Supervisors become safety bottlenecks.

When teams churn quickly, supervisors become overwhelmed. Instead of coaching, observing, and mentoring, they’re onboarding, scheduling, and filling in. Safety becomes reactive instead of preventative.

Not only does turnover increase claim frequency, it changes the entire safety ecosystem.

4. The Overlap: When Fatigue, Aging, and Turnover Collide

Individually, fatigue, aging, and turnover are noticeable risks. Together, they create the most challenging workers’ comp environment we’ve seen in years.

Consider a realistic scenario:

• A long-term employee retires.
• A new, inexperienced employee fills the gap.
• The new employee works extra hours to keep up.
• A slightly older coworker picks up overtime to support the team.
• Fatigue accumulates.
• A minor strain turns into a claim.
• Recovery takes longer due to age-related factors.
• Modified-duty options are limited because of staffing shortages.

No single step is surprising. But collectively, the pathway leads from normal operational pressures to a claim that costs far more, and lasts far longer, than anyone expected.

This is how comp costs rise without catastrophic accidents or obvious red flags. It’s not the headline-making injuries that drive the trend; it’s the everyday realities of how work gets done.

5. What Employers Should Focus On in the Coming Year

The good news is that none of these challenges are unmanageable. Employers who recognize the human side of their comp exposure can make small adjustments that produce significant results.

A few priorities stand out:

• Create realistic work pacing—even small reductions in strain reduce long-tail claims.
• Build rest and recovery into shift design—especially for older workers or those in physically demanding roles.
• Pair new hires with experienced mentors—not just during training, but long after.
• Check in early and often—most injuries start small; early reporting is everything.
• Document job changes—when duties shift, adjust classifications and expectations accordingly.
• Watch the warning signs of fatigue—slower response time, irritability, more errors, declining posture.

Again, none of this replaces strong safety programs or good injury management practices. But in 2026, these “human factor” issues will be major drivers of the claims that surprise employers the most.

The workers’ compensation system is reacting to injuries AND the changing nature of the workforce itself. Fatigue, aging, and turnover create exposures that don’t show up on reports or dashboards, but they absolutely show up in claims.

These trends won’t reverse anytime soon. But employers who understand them and adjust proactively will see fewer injuries, faster recoveries, and far more predictable comp costs.